New York ISO says enough power there for the next 10 years

New York state’s bulk power system has adequate power generation resources to meet reliability needs for the next decade, according to the New York Independent System Operator’s 2016 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), which was released on Oct. 18.

“We understand that energy industry professionals, government officials and the investment community alike rely on the NYISO’s authoritative information and expertise,” said NYISO President and CEO Brad Jones. “This report provides an objective and thorough assessment of the reliability needs of the state’s electric grid over the next 10 years so that the market can respond with potential solutions.”

While no resource adequacy needs were identified on the bulk power system, the RNA identified two localized transmission security reliability needs that would begin in 2017 absent remedial action by transmission owners:

  • the New York State Electric & Gas (NYSEG) Oakdale 345/115-kilovolt transformer; and
  • the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) East Garden City to Valley Stream 138-kilovolt line.

The 2016 RNA finds that resource adequacy criteria are met throughout the 10-year study period. The 2016 RNA was developed through the NYISO’s stakeholder process, which provides input from regulators and market participants who supply, use, transmit and trade energy in New York’s competitive wholesale electricity markets. By identifying future reliability needs every two years through its planning process, the NYISO’s RNA process provides vital information to enable market forces to respond to system reliability needs.

The NYISO will next consider transmission plan updates from transmission owners and then, if necessary, issue a solicitation for market-based and regulated solutions for the two identified reliability needs. The NYISO will issue a Comprehensive Reliability Plan that will describe the actions to be taken to maintain reliability for the ten-year planning horizon.

The RNA report touches on a number of areas, including these planned generating capacity additions:

  • CPV Valley Energy Center, located in Zone G, 680 MW reguested CRIS, 2018 is first year of base case inclusion;
  • Taylor Biomass, Zone G, 19 MW, 2018 first year of inclusion;
  • Copenhagen Wind, Zone E, 79.9 MW, 2018;
  • East River 1 Uprate, Zone J, 12.1 MW, 2017;
  • East River 1 Uprate, Zone J, 12.1 MW, 2017;
  • Black Oak Wind, Zone C, 0 MW, 2017;
  • Sithe Independence Uprate, Zone C, 43 MW, 2017;
  • Marble River Wind, Zone D, 215.2 MW, 2017;
  • HQ-US (External CRIS Rights), Zone E, 20 MW, 2017;
  • Stony Creek Uprate, Zone C, 5.9 MW, 2017; and
  • Bowline 2 Uprate, Zone G, 10 MW, 2017.

Another list of future projects derived from the 2016 Gold Book includes:

  • Wind Development Contract Co. LLC, Hounsfield Wind project, Zone E, 244.8 MW summer rating, Wind Turbines;
  • Astoria Generating Co., South Pier Improvement, Zone J, 2016/06, 91.2 MW, Combustion Turbines;
  • NRG Energy, Bowline Unit 3, Zone G, 2016/06, 775 MW, Combined Cycle;
  • Erie Power LLC, Erie Power, Zone A, 2016/08, 79.4 MW, Combined Cycle;
  • Invenergy Solar Development LLC, Tallgrass Solar, Zone K, 2016/11, 25 MW, Solar;
  • Baron Winds LLC, Baron Winds, Zone C, 2016/12, 300 MW, Wind Turbines;
  • US PowerGen Co., Luyster Creek Energy, Zone J, 2017/06, 401 MW, Combined Cycle;
  • Dry Lots Wind LLC, Dry Lots Wind, Zone E, 2017/11, 33 MW, Wind Turbines;
  • South Mountain Wind LLC, South Mountain Wind, Zone E, 2017/12, 18 MW, Wind Turbines;
  • Air Energie TCI Inc., Crown City Wind, Zone C, 2018/12, 90 MW, Wind Turbines;
  • Cassadaga Wind LLC, Cassadaga Wind, Zone A, 2018/12, 126 MW, Wind Turbines;
  • Cricket Valley Energy Center LLC, Cricket Valley Energy Center II, Zone G, 2019/08, 1,020 MW, Combined Cycle; and
  • Franklin Wind Farm LLC, Franklin Wind, Zone E, 2019/12, 50.4 MW, Wind Turbines.

The RNA also lists a number of power plants deactivations, including NRG Energy‘s existing shutdown of the coal-fired Dunkirk Units 2-4, and the planned deactivations as of July 1 of 2017 of Cayuga Operating‘s coal-fired Cayuga Units 1 and 2.

The RNA also looks at the impacts various environmental regulations. For example, the U.S. EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) will limit emissions of mercury and air toxics through the use of Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) for Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAP) from coal- and oil-fueled steam generators with a nameplate capacity of 25 MW or more. MATS directly affects three coal-fired units in the New York Control Area, representing 978 MW of nameplate capacity. Compliance requirements began in April 2015, but Reliability Critical Units (RCU) can apply for an extension through April 2017. One coal-fired unit in New York applied for an extension of the compliance deadline to April 2017. The remainder of the New York coal fleet installed emission control equipment and achieved compliance by April 2015.

Under MATS, the heavy oil-fired units have implemented a compliance strategy that relies on cleaner mix of fuels. Given the current outlook for the continued attractiveness of natural gas compared to heavy oil, it is anticipated that compliance can be achieved by dual fuel units through the use of natural gas to maintain fuel ratios that are specified in the regulation.

Another example is Best Technology Available (BTA) The U.S. EPA proposed a new Clear Water Act Section 316b rule providing standards for the design and operation of power plant cooling systems. This rule will be implemented by New York’s environment department, which has finalized a policy for the implementation of the BTA for plant cooling water intake structures. Based upon a review of current information, the NYISO has estimated that approximately 4,300 MW of nameplate capacity could be required to undertake major system retrofits, including closed cycle cooling systems. One high-profile application of this policy is the Indian Point nuclear plant, for which water discharge permit and water quality certification under the Clean Water Act remain pending at the state level. The owners of the Bowline power plant have accepted a limit on the duration of operation of the plant as their compliance method. The state BTA policy allows units to operate with 15% capacity factor averaged over a five-year period, provided that impingement goals are met and the plant is operated in a manner that minimizes entrainment of aquatic organisms.

About Barry Cassell 20414 Articles
Barry Cassell is Chief Analyst for GenerationHub covering coal and emission controls issues, projects and policy. He has covered the coal and power generation industry for more than 24 years, beginning in November 2011 at GenerationHub and prior to that as editor of SNL Energy’s Coal Report. He was formerly with Coal Outlook for 15 years as the publication’s editor and contributing writer, and prior to that he was editor of Coal & Synfuels Technology and associate editor of The Energy Report. He has a bachelor’s degree from Central Michigan University.