The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) reported May 19 that electricity supplies in New York state are expected to be adequate to meet forecasted demand this summer, with a total of 41,874 MW of power resources available to meet an estimated peak demand of 33,360 MW.
The NYISO forecasts that peak demand this summer will reach 33,360 MW. Last summer’s peak demand of 31,138 MW – recorded on July 29, 2015 – was below the 15-year average of 31,540 MW. New York’s all-time record peak is 33,956 MW, reached in July 2013 at the end of a week-long heat wave.
While the electricity system must be prepared to address peak load conditions, average demand is typically far less. The peak forecast is based on normal summer weather conditions, with temperatures in New York City about 95°F. If extreme summer weather produces heat waves with prolonged temperatures of 100°F in New York City and elsewhere, peak demand across the state could increase to approximately 35,683 MW.
The total capacity of power resources available to New York this summer is expected to be 41,874 MW. The total includes 38,534 MW of generating capacity from New York power plants, 1,248 MW in demand response resources and 2,092 MW of purchases and sales that could be used to supply energy from neighboring regions to New York.
New York’s electric system is operated under reliability requirements that include an operating reserve requirement based on the potential loss of the system’s largest single resource. In 2016, that operating reserve requirement is 2,620 MW. Based on the peak demand forecast, the total capacity requirement is 35,980 MW.
In addition to power plant generating capacity and the capability to import power, peak demand conditions can be addressed by demand response resources. These programs enlist large users of electricity and aggregations of smaller power customers to reduce their electricity consumption when called upon by the NYISO. Energy efficiency programs, distributed solar photovoltaics, and non-solar distributed resources are also combining to moderate the growth of peak load and reduce energy usage.