The New York ISO has released a Feb. 11 “Generator Deactivation Assessment” on a recent deactivation notice from Entergy Nuclear FitzPatrick LLC covering the proposed retirement of the James A. FitzPatrick Nuclear Generating Facility.
NYISO determined that notice to be complete on Nov. 13, 2015. Entergy reported that the deactivation of the 882-MW facility is intended to occur at the end of the current fuel cycle (i.e., Quarter 4 of 2016–Quarter 1 of 2017). In response, NYISO performed, in coordination with transmission owner National Grid and the New York Power Authority (NYPA), resource adequacy and transmission security analysis to determine whether a Reliability Need would result from this deactivation of Fitzpatrick. NYISO has identified a statewide resource deficiency that constitutes a Reliability Need that would occur starting in 2019.
The NYISO evaluated the near-term period from 2016 through 2020 using the most recent reliability planning process base case, with updates including the load forecasts consistent with the 2015 Load and Capacity Data Report (“Gold Book”), capacity resource deactivations and additions, and planned transmission facilities modifications.
Also, on Jan. 1, 2016, the NYISO received notice from NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) of its intent to mothball Astoria GTs 8, 10, and 11. Also on Jan. 1, NRG Energy’s Astoria GTs 5, 7, 12, and 13 and Niagara Generation LLC‘s Niagara Bio-Gen transitioned from Forced Outages into ICAP Ineligible Forced Outages (IIFO). Full assessments for these units will be completed no later than March 31, 2016; however, these generator deactivations were modeled as out-of-service in the resource adequacy analysis for this Generator Deactivation Assessment for FitzPatrick.
Accordingly, the resource adequacy analysis in this assessment assumes all generators that are currently mothballed (including Mothball Outage), that are in an IIFO, or have issued a notice of intent to mothball or retire are out of service. If any such generator returns to service or rescinds its notice, then the NYISO would evaluate the impact of that return on the findings and conclusions from this assessment in accordance with its Gap Solution process.
The NYISO assessed the resource adequacy of the overall system, per the one-day-in-ten-years (0.1 per year) Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) criterion, which measures the probability of disconnecting firm load due to a resource deficiency. The NYISO has identified a statewide resource deficiency resulting in an LOLE criterion violation that would occur starting in 2019. The resource deficiency equates to approximately 325 MW statewide, but would likely require more than 325 MW of new or retained capacity resources to resolve, depending on forced outage rates and the location of the resources. Due to transmission system limitations between Zones A and B, capacity added in Zone A is not as effective as capacity added in other locations, unless that capacity also improves the transfer limitations.
Additionally, the NYISO performed a transmission security assessment for the Bulk Power Transmission Facilities (BPTFs), and National Grid and NYPA each performed a transmission security assessment of their non-BPTFs. The NYISO reviewed and verified the analysis performed by National Grid and NYPA. No transmission security related Reliability Needs were identified in the near-term period.
The NYISO has identified a statewide resource deficiency that constitutes a Reliability Need that would occur starting in 2019. A statewide resource deficiency in year 2019 cannot be timely addressed within the biennial reliability planning process; therefore the NYISO said it will commence the Gap Solution process to address the Reliability Need.
The FitzPatrick study listed these units subject to deactivation:
- Niagara Bio-Gen, Zone A, expected deactivation on Jan. 1, 2016, 50.5 MW (nameplate);
- Astoria GTs 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, Zone J, expected deactivation Jan. 1, 2016, 142 MW (nameplate);
- Dunkirk 2 (coal), Zone A, expected deactivation Jan. 1, 2016, 100 MW (nameplate);
- Huntley 67 and 68 (coal), Zone A, expected deactivation March 1, 2016, 436 MW (nameplate);
- Ravenswood GTs 4, 5, 6, Zone J, expected deactivation May 1, 2016, 64.2 MW (nameplate);
- FitzPatrick, Zone C, expected deactivation Nov. 12, 2016, 882 MW (nameplate);
- Ginna (nuclear), Zone C, expected deactivation April 1, 2017, 614 MW (nameplate); and
- Cayuga 1 and 2 (coal), Zone C, expected deactivation July 1, 2017, 322.5 MW (nameplate).
The report mentioned only one new addition planned, which is the CPV Valley Energy Center, located in Zone G, expected in-service in March 2018, 820 MW (nameplate).