Genscape sees natural gas exports to Mexico growing

United States natural gas exports to Mexico are growing, Genscape reported recently, citing a combination of flat production and rising demand for gas in Mexico.

Exports this month-to-date are averaging 1,914 mmcf/d, a 228 mmcf/d from last year-to-date, and boosting the year-to-date average to 1,982 mmcf/d, 7% above last year and the prior three-year average, Genscape natural gas analyst Rick Margolin said in an Oct. 22 posting on the Genscape website.

Genscape forecasts this growth will continue and expects exports this winter will average 1,940 mmcf/d, or roughly 240 mmcf/d above last winter.

Longer-term, Genscape forecasts have exports reaching nearly 4,000 mmcf/d by summer 2018. Mexican domestic gas production is flat-to-declining in many regions at the same time its demand for gas is on the rise.

That demand is being primarily driven by robust industrial activity (primarily in the northern border states) and growing power demand. Mexico will be adding more than 5,000 MW of gas-fired generation in the next three-years, Genscape noted.

Genscape is a provider of information and data for global commodity and energy markets.

Since the Genscape analysis was posted, ATCO and its partner Grupo Hermes S.A. de C.V. have been selected by an affiliate of Mexico’s state-owned petroleum company Pemex to begin the project development and approval process for a 638-MW gas-fired cogeneration plant at the Miguel Hidalgo refinery near the town of Tula in the state of Hidalgo, Mexico. Commercial operation of that gas-fired plant is targeted for the second half of 2017.

About Wayne Barber 4201 Articles
Wayne Barber, Chief Analyst for the GenerationHub, has been covering power generation, energy and natural resources issues at national publications for more than 20 years. Prior to joining PennWell he was editor of Generation Markets Week at SNL Financial for nine years. He has also worked as a business journalist at both McGraw-Hill and Financial Times Energy. Wayne also worked as a newspaper reporter for several years. During his career has visited nuclear reactors and coal mines as well as coal and natural gas power plants. Wayne can be reached at