Navigant: Worldwide wind development to slow in future years

With the addition of 44.9 GW in new installations in 2012, world wind power capacity grew to approximately 285.7 GW, an increase of 18.6% in the total wind power installation base, said Navigant Research on July 3.

Average annual growth over the past 5 years has been 17.8%, achieved during the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, even with traditionally large markets for wind power in economic recession in both North America and Europe. According to a recent report from Navigant Research, however, market growth will fluctuate over the next several years: 241.6 GW will be added between 2012 and 2017, at an average growth rate of 5.1% annually.

“The wind power industry continues to demonstrate its ability to rapidly evolve in order to meet new demands in markets that face a variety of challenges,” said Feng Zhao, managing consultant with Navigant Research. “Wind turbine vendors are designing specialized machines for maximum energy production in low wind speed areas and for operation in high altitudes, in cold climates, and offshore. Nevertheless, a slowdown in wind turbine sales is anticipated, with a decrease of more than 10 percent in 2013 compared to 2012.”

That decrease will be reflected in the U.S. market during 2013, as a result of 2012’s last‐minute one-year extension of the federal production tax credit (PTC). Under that extension, qualifying projects need to be in construction by the end of this year. The U.S. market will likely face additional political uncertainty when the PTC expires again, Navigant added.

Established European wind power markets, such as Spain and Italy, are expected to decline in coming years, while China, the world’s largest wind market, will remain in a state of transition from a period of “breakneck” growth to one of more stable development, Navigant said.

The report, “International Wind Energy Development: World Market Update 2012”, is the 18th edition of this annual wind energy market report. The report examines the state of the wind power industry today and provides forecasts for the market through 2017.

Navigant Research provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, Navigant Research focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology markets.

Parent Navigant (NYSE: NCI) is a specialized, global expert services firm dedicated to assisting clients in creating and protecting value in the face of critical business risks and opportunities.

About Barry Cassell 20414 Articles
Barry Cassell is Chief Analyst for GenerationHub covering coal and emission controls issues, projects and policy. He has covered the coal and power generation industry for more than 24 years, beginning in November 2011 at GenerationHub and prior to that as editor of SNL Energy’s Coal Report. He was formerly with Coal Outlook for 15 years as the publication’s editor and contributing writer, and prior to that he was editor of Coal & Synfuels Technology and associate editor of The Energy Report. He has a bachelor’s degree from Central Michigan University.