Thermal violations threaten NY grid security in 2013 — NYISO report

A reliability needs assessment released today by the New York ISO (NYISO) found potential security violations for three areas of the New York grid beginning as soon as next year and certain resource adequacy violations beginning in 2020.

A critical part of NYISO’s comprehensive reliability planning process, the 2012 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) provides a reliability review of New York’s bulk power system for 2013 through 2022, defining “reliability need” as a “potential violation of reliability criteria which requires transmission security and resource adequacy assessments.”

In the study, NYISO finds that transmission security – the ability of the system to handle operational disturbances – would be compromised in the Genesee, Central, and Hudson Valley zones, and that concerns included thermal violations, “for which sufficient corrective actions could not be identified.”

The study calls for local transmission plans or regulated solutions from National Grid, Rochester Gas & Electric (RG&E), and Orange & Rockland Utilities (ORU) for these security threats.

RG&E is a subsidiary of Iberdrola USA, and ORU is a wholly owned subsidiary of Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) that has two utility subsidiaries – Rockland Electric Co. and Pike County Light & Power Co. – serving seven counties in New York.

Additional issues are raised in the RNA about the ability of the New York grid to meet power demand. NYISO’s examination of resource adequacy highlights a 1,000 MW reduction in the modeled generation resources over its 2010 assessment that results in potential reliability criteria violations by 2020. The reduction in generation resources is attributed to “retirements or mothballing of generation units,” according to the RNA

Additional potential scenarios that could affect system reliability are examined in the RNA. Models include retiring Indian Point Energy Center, providing information on resource adequacy violations based upon higher or lower demand forecasts, and the hypothetical retirement of all coal-fired generation.

Following on its findings in the RNA, NYISO plans to issue a request for market-based and regulated solutions and release a Comprehensive Reliability Plan that outlines how these solutions will satisfy the issues raised in the RNA.

NYISO will hold a public forum to present the findings of its 2012 RNA at its Krey Corporate Center on Sept. 24.