ISO New England is projecting an average annual increase of 1.5% summer peak for the period 2012 to 2021, according to its report, “2012-2021 forecast report of capacity, energy loads, and transmission,” known as the CELT.
According to the report, the ISO is projecting a summer peak of 27,440 MW this year; 29,895 MW in 2017; and 31,255 MW in 2021.
The CELT is updated annually to provide the long-term forecast for growth in energy consumption and peak demand, as well as the capacity of resources in New England, the ISO said May 2. The capacity figures include the number of megawatts with capacity supply obligations through the forward capacity market (FCM) as well as the total generating capacity of resources in the region.
For summer peak 2012, for instance, the ISO is projecting 29,947 MW of capacity generating resources, 2,106 MW of demand resources, and 776 MW of imports, for a total of 32,829 MW.
The ISO is also projecting an average annual increase of 0.6% winter peak for the same 2012-2021 time period, with a winter peak of 22,355 MW projected this year, and 23,565 MW projected in 2021.
Furthermore, the ISO is projecting an average annual increase of 0.9% net annual energy for the same period, with 138,195 GWh projected this year rising to a projected 150,375 GWh in 2021.
The CELT also provides information on the capacity supply obligations resulting from the FCM auctions for 2011-2012, through the fifth FCM auction for 2014-2015. Furthermore, the report shows the breakdown of capacity by fuel type and provides a link to the transmission project listing.
For the first time, the CELT forecasts for summer and winter peaks include projections for passive demand resources, such as energy efficiency measures, that go beyond the known capacity amounts acquired through the FCM auctions, the ISO added.
The link to the regional system plan transmission projects March update included in the CELT provides cost estimate comparisons of reliability projects. For instance, the New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), which involves four related transmission projects by Northeast Utilities (NYSE:NU) and National Grid plc subsidiary National Grid USA, saw a $33m cost increase estimate from November 2011 to March.
The March update also included the status of major transmission projects. For instance, the Rhode Island Reliability Project and the Greater Springfield Reliability Project, part of NEEWS, have received siting approval. Also, Central Maine Power’s 440-mile, 345-kV Maine Power Reliability Program is expected to be complete in 2015. CMP is a subsidiary of Iberdrola USA, which is a subsidiary of Iberdrola S.A.